Warm autumn in the housing market
House prices fell by 0.7 per cent in October 2024. Adjusted for seasonal variations, house prices rose by 0.3 per cent.
So far in 2024, housing prices in Norway have risen by 6.9 per cent.
The average price for a home in Norway was NOK 4,621,472 at the end of October.
- House prices fell by 0.7 per cent in October, which gave a seasonally adjusted increase of 0.3 per cent. It is normal for house prices to fall in the autumn, and in the autumn of 2022 and 2023 house prices fell a lot. This affects the seasonal adjustment now, as the calculation places more weight on recent years. Historically, the price trend now in October is completely normal, says managing director Henning Lauridsen of Eiendom Norge.
- The most startling thing in October, as in September, is that the sales volume continues to rise, and a whopping 26.7 per cent more homes have been sold in October this year. Many homes have also been put up for sale, but growth is slowing and the number of unsold properties has fallen throughout the month.
- Our assessment is that the large volume in the second-hand market is now due to the fact that many buyers who would normally have bought a newly built home now prefer to orientate themselves in the second-hand housing market, says Lauridsen.
Lots of sales
In October, 9,892 homes were sold in Norway, which is 26.7 per cent more than the corresponding month in 2023.
So far this year, 88,284 homes have been sold in Norway, which is 8.3 per cent more than in the same period in 2023.
In October, 9,945 homes were listed for sale in Norway, which is 6.1 per cent more than in the same month in 2023.
So far this year, 97,502 homes have been put up for sale in Norway, which is 3 per cent more than in the same period in 2023.
- An exceptionally large number of second-hand homes were sold in October in Norway. If the large volume continues in November and December, 2024 will be a record year measured in turnover in the second-hand housing market, says Lauridsen.
It took an average of 48 days to sell a home in October, up from 46 days in September. Bergen and Stavanger and surrounding areas had the shortest sales time with 25 days. Bodø with Fauske had the longest selling time with 70 days.
Strongest in Bergen
Bergen had the strongest seasonally adjusted price development in October, with a seasonally adjusted increase of 1.8 per cent.
Tønsberg m/Færder had the weakest seasonally adjusted price development in September, with a seasonally adjusted decrease of 1.2 per cent.
Bergen has the strongest development so far in 2024 with 12.5 per cent. The weakest development so far this year is Bodø with/Fauske, with an increase of 2.6 per cent.
- Bergen has now taken over from Stavanger as the strongest housing market in Norway so far in 2024, followed by Ålesund and its surroundings. South-West Norway and West Norway stand out with strong housing price growth. This probably reflects that it is precisely in this region that the export-oriented business world is also based, and which also pulls up an otherwise rather weak Norwegian economy at the moment, says Lauridsen.
Down with interest
On Thursday this week, Norges Bank has the year's penultimate interest rate meeting.
- Quarterly growth in Norwegian GDP is now a weak 0.1 per cent, a development which, according to Statistics Norway, has been unusually weak since the autumn of 2022. Much of this is due to the crisis in the new housing market, where we are now seeing the lowest housing construction since the Second World War, says Lauridsen.
- We believe it is time for Norges Bank to lower the interest rate. The longer housing construction is crippled, the worse the consequences for the Norwegian economy and financial stability will be. We need the homes that are now not being built, and the consideration of growth in the Norwegian economy must at some point trump considerations of inflation and the krone exchange rate. That time is now, concludes Lauridsen.