Still mild in the housing market
House prices fell by 0.5 percent in November 2024. Adjusted for seasonal variations, house prices rose by 0.4 percent.
So far in 2024, house prices in Norway have risen by 6.3 percent.
The average price of a home in Norway was NOK 4,498,365 at the end of November.
- House prices fell by 0.5 percent in November, which gave a seasonally adjusted increase of 0.4 percent. Similar to the November weather, the housing market has also been mild last month, as these are strong numbers for November, says CEO Henning Lauridsen of Eiendom Norge.
- With a small nominal decline in December as normal, this means that house price developments in 2024 will probably end up a little stronger than our forecast from December last year. Then we thought house prices in Norway would rise by 4 percent. Now we will most likely end up with an increase of just under 6 percent. Measured against the CPI, this is still moderate after several years of decline in real house prices, he says.
- The large sales volume we have seen throughout 2024 has continued in November, and far more homes have been sold so far this year than at the same time in 2022 and 2023. We expect the strong volume in the second-hand housing market to persist going forward, says Lauridsen.
Record number of homes listed for sale
In November, 7,256 homes were sold in Norway, which is 8 percent more than the same month in 2023.
So far this year, 95,540 homes have been sold in Norway, which is 8.3 percent more than in the same period in 2023.
In November, 6,536 homes were listed for sale in Norway, which is 5.5 percent more than in the same month in 2023.
So far this year, 104,038 homes have been listed for sale in Norway, which is 3.1 percent more than in the same period in 2023.
- The volumes are at a very high level in the second-hand housing market and we have to go back to the pandemic year 2021 to find something similar. Most likely, we will end up with a record number of homes listed in 2024 and marginally after the record year 2021 in the number of homes sold, says Lauridsen.
It took an average of 54 days to sell a home in November, up from 48 days in October.
The shortest sales time was in Stavanger and the surrounding area with 27 days. The longest sales time was in Hamar and Stange with 91 days.
Strong in Stavanger, Bodø at the bottom
The strongest seasonally adjusted price development in November was in Stavanger and the surrounding area with a seasonally adjusted increase of 1.7 percent.
The weakest seasonally adjusted price development in November was in Bodø and Fauske with a decrease of 1.0 percent.
The strongest development so far in 2024 is in Stavanger and the surrounding area with 12.5 percent. The weakest development so far this year is in Bodø and Fauske with an increase of 0.4 percent.
- Stavanger and Bergen are competing to have the strongest price growth in 2024. At the opposite end, it is Bodø and Fauske that stands out from the rest with a small increase of 0.4 percent so far this year. This must be seen in the context of the fact that the Bodø region has had very strong price growth for many years and has reached a very high housing price level. This gives a greater drop in housing prices, when interest rates have become so high, says Lauridsen.
Continuing the lending regulation means fewer homeowners
This morning, Minister of Finance Trygve Slagsvold Vedum (Sp) announced that the lending regulation will be continued from the new year without an expiration date and that the equity requirement will be lowered from 15 to 10 percent.
At the same time, the banks' possibility for flexibility in granting credit is emphasized.
- It is positive that the government is easing the lending regulation, but it is well documented that the regulation has small gains and large costs in the form of increased inequality with fewer homeowners, greater dependence on inheritance, and increased financial vulnerability in households.
- The decrease in the ownership rate from 2015 coincides with the introduction of the credit regulation. The reduction in the equity requirement makes it a little easier to become a homeowner, but we still expect the ownership rate to fall, he says.
- We are particularly critical of continuing the regulation without an expiration date. This makes the future of this intrusive regulation unclear. It is worth remembering that the regulation was once justified by strong debt growth and low interest rates, which we do not have now, concludes Lauridsen.
